Análise econômica da introdução do gás natural na matriz elétrica da cidade de Manaus - Estado do Amazonas

Abstract

This study investigated the economic impacts caused by substitution of fuel oil derived from oil to gas, from the Solimões Basin Petroleum, city of Coari (AM), the electrical grid of the city of Manaus - Amazonas state. The study was done through a scene analysis which considers the gas volume and the period specified in the contract, supplying natural gas to the thermal park of Manaus until December 2030. The methodology was based on aspects of electricity generation, energy consumption and cost of fuels (derived from petroleum and natural gas) in order to set the avoided cost of the fuels replacement, as well as present a study of Thermal Plants modulation indicating a better energy efficiency for the use of the volume of gas already contracted. Thus, the research permitted to: (a) identify the avoided cost, with the replacement of fuels to the existing thermoelectric park in the city of Manaus, will be around R$ 1 billion (US$ 529 million) per year from the year 2012, and (b) develop a proposal to use the entire volume of natural gas contracted for electric power generation, with the implementation of a power plant with gas turbines in combined cycle size from 500 to 600 MW of installed rated power, resulting in an increase of about 80% generation capacity with natural gas, as well as an energetic efficiency gain of about 28% in the thermoelectric park system currently installed in Manaus Electric System.