As flutuações cambiais e as exportações amazonenses de castanha-do-brasil e de peixe ornamental, no período 1989-2009: um diagnóstico

Abstract

Studies and questions have been conducted around the valuation of the exchange rate. There are sectors that lose market share due to the unfavorable exchange rate policy. Others engage in a productive process of adjustment in their eagerness to stay on the market. In this perspective, this study proposes to evaluate the effects of currency fluctuations in Brazil and its effect on the export market of brazil-nut and ornamental fish exported by the Amazon, in the period 1989 to 2009. In specific plan is proposed: (a) clarify the behavior of income from exports of these two products and their relationship to the volume exported, regionally and internationally, per capita income levels of the largest consumers and its association with rates of exchange; (b) calculating an index of regional concentration of these products in order to highlight the regional potential in the export of these. The conceptual framework was based on exploring ideas and theories about the importance of exchange in determining the competitiveness of the economy as well as in the extractive sector. The methodology was based on a temporal analysis of the two markets, by means of statistics, accommodated in tables, graphs and indicators of concentration. Tightened up this analysis using econometric models - multiple linear regression - for the markets under study. The results showed that in the export of Amazonian brazil-nut, predominates nut shell and, because of that, leaving to earn marginal incomes. To get an idea of this issue, the price of shelled nuts is 2.17 times higher the price of the nut shell. Apart from this, the exchange rate exacerbates the poor performance of the segment. The multiple regression equation showed that the appreciation of the real 1% against the dollar, income decreases in 13.38% - significant weight in decisions to export Amazon nut. In turn, the market for ornamental fish has shown that, worldwide, moves, on average, over 30 billion dollars annually, and that Brazil have not exceeded more than 0.3% of that market. The export volume factor proved crucial to the performance of this segment. The econometric evidence showed that an increase of just 1% in volume exported ornamental fish may boost 14.63% in revenues from exports. It is noteworthy that the volume of ornamental fish exported by the Amazon has fallen over time. This can be associated with a combination of factors: the scarcity of the species, low pay for the effort to capture early in the chain, the intense environmental monitoring, among others. The results show that currency appreciation is a problem, but we can not attribute the low performance of these products only to the exchange. One should take into account a broader view of analysis which involves investments, especially in new technologies and production infrastructure. Structural studies of these markets need to be made in order to identify structural factors that can be mitigated in order to ensure competitiveness and dynamism to the segments.