Mudanças na paisagem da bacia do rio Purus: impactos e desafios para redução do desmatamento e degradação florestal

Abstract

The Purus River Basin, spanning 369,741 km², is considered a transboundary basin with 93% of its territory located in Brazil, 6% in Peru, and 1% in Bolivia. Out of the 25 municipalities within the basin, 17 are part of the economic development project known as "AMACRO," which aims to promote environmental sustainability and reduce pressure on forest cover. However, the region has become a new frontier for the expansion of Brazilian agricultural activities. This study aimed to analyze landscape changes in the Purus River Basin related to deforestation and forest degradation. Two different time frames were considered: the first to examine the drivers and agents of deforestation between 2015 and 2021, as it involves different governments and government policies. The second time frame analyzed deforestation dynamics between 2011 and 2021 to project future deforestation and quantify Greenhouse Gas emissions between 2022 and 2031. The results reveal that 620,650 hectares were deforested between 2015 and 2021, with the most significant impact in the mid-course region of the Purus River, an area strongly affected by deforestation. The evidence-weighted analysis indicates that areas near to roads have a higher risk of deforestation, and future scenarios suggest a reduction of approximately 748,870 hectares of forest cover by 2031. This projected value represents a 2% decrease in forest landscape compared to 2021. It is estimated that in ten years, emissions of up to 359 million tons of CO2e could occur in the study area, with 22% of emissions originating from federal public forests. The identified results can contribute to the development of effective strategies for forest preservation and conservation, as well as mitigating negative environmental impacts and greenhouse gas emissions in the region.