Uma proposta para estimação da taxa e da subnotificação de registros de estupro de vulnerável no Brasil

Abstract

The rape of vulnerable people is a phenomenon that has experienced a considerable increase in its occurrence. However these numbers are not vastly known due to the high index of under-reportings related to this type of crime. This study aims to estimate the rate of rape of vulnerable people by means of the Bayesian inference and data augmentation techniques. The proposed methodology used the data of rape of vulnerable people of some countryside cities of Amazonas referring to the period of 2010 to 2012. Due to the good adherence to the aforementioned data, the deployment of a multivariate Poisson model showed its efficacy.