Impactos da mudança climática na distribuição de espécies de Copaifera spp. (Fabaceae) para a conservação de seus recursos genéticos

Abstract

The Amazon rainforest plays a crucial role in the global climate balance and in providing essential ecosystem services. However, it faces serious threats from deforestation and climate change that could impact its biodiversity, including species of the genus Copaifera spp. known for their production of oleoresin. This study used advanced potential distribution modelling techniques to analyse the ecological niche and geographical distribution of the Copaifera multijuga Hayne and Copaifera reticulata Ducke species in the Brazilian Amazon. 33 environmental variables were used, including climate and soil quality data, as well as historical deforestation information from INPE and land use information from the MapBiomas project. The aim was to estimate the distribution of the ecological niche of these species and assess the impact of environmental changes on them. The modelling process resulted in a consensus model, by means of weighted averages, using six algorithms, which performed satisfactorily, with indices above 0.9. The results revealed that C. multijuga and C. reticulata have a wide distribution in the Amazon, preferably in areas with a warm and humid climate. However, the effects of climate change pose a significant threat to their ecological niche. Under the SSP585 scenario, both species could lose extensive areas in the Brazilian Amazon region, especially due to extreme variations in temperature and precipitation, impacting their phenological cycles, survival and growth. The study highlighted those protected areas, such as Conservation Units and Indigenous Lands, play a crucial role in protecting these niches, serving as an effective barrier against the advance of deforestation. Therefore, these results provide important subsidies for improving public policies aimed at the conservation and sustainable use of Copaifera spp.