Estimativas do avanço do desflorestamento nos municípios de Iranduba e Manacapuru, Amazonas, por meio da modelagem espacial

Abstract

The advance of deforestation in Amazonas state, linked to current concerns of sustainable development and the evaluation of environmental issues involved motivate research related to construction of future scenarios for various regions in Brazil and worldwide. In this context, this research aims to simulate the trends of deforestation in the municipalities of Iranduba and Manacapuru, Amazonas, from physical variables (roads, APA, RDS and Hydrography), analyzing the patterns of deforestation in the year 2000-2012 and performing future projection until the year 2024, through their spatial allocations and its quantitative rates. For both were used as a basis for analysis of deforestation Programme Data Monitoring Deforestation Deforestation of the Amazon - Prodes, managed by the National Institute for Space Research - INPE which aims to calculate rates of deforestation for the Amazon. From selecting attributes Mosaic Prodes the year 2012, the classes of interest (annual deforestation, forest hydrology and not forest), which allowed the construction of the coverage map of the area as well as the transition from forest to have been selected deforestation in the period 2000-2012. Statements of initial and final use in software Ego allowed Dynamics from the Markov model enabled the transition probabilities of forest to deforestation of the year 2012 until the year 2024. Roads Physical variables and hydrographic proved to be contributors in this process over time. The simulation results were validated by spatially Fuzzy similarity index and proved satisfactory in the simulation. Measures related to the management of natural resources, land use planning, public policy and future conservation strategies are needed for the area municipalities of Iranduba and Manacapuru