Influência dos rios atmosféricos no agronegócio brasileiro: uma análise de redundância

Abstract

The Amazon, through the provision of ecosystem services, plays an essential role in the environmental balance of Brazil and other countries. Atmospheric rivers consist of one of these services, they occurred in the transport of moisture originally from the Atlantic Ocean to other regions of the country and the continent. However, the advance in deforestation of this biome can directly impact these environmental dynamics and, consequently, influence segments such as agribusiness. Thus, the present study aimed to analyze the relationship between precipitation resulting from the transfer of moisture from the portion of the Amazon Forest located in the North region, and the agricultural yield of corn and soybean crops in the South and Southeast regions of Brazil, as well as the effect of deforestation in this dynamic. For this, the statistical method of Redundancy Analysis was used, where climatological data were analyzed, such as the divergence of the vertically integrated moisture flow, the convergence of the vertically integrated moisture flow, evapotranspiration and precipitation, generated from two models computational data, simulating external observations that were later transformed into planned ones for carrying out the analyses, transmitted from the research project of the PIATAM Institute, called “The Industrial Pole of Manaus and its possible contribution to Brazilian agribusiness – Flying rivers: Study on dynamics Amazonian hydration and its effects on moisture flow”. As for data on Soybean Production, Corn Production and Gross Value of Agriculture in the South and Southeast regions of Brazil, these were collected on the website of the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). With regard to deforestation data in the Amazon biome, the National Institute for Special Research (INPE) was used as a data source, which since 1988 has been monitoring deforestation in the Legal Amazon through the Project for Monitoring Deforestation in the Legal Amazon by Satellite (PRODES). From the results obtained, it was possible to identify the existence of correlations between the variations (increase/reduction) of the hydroclimatic dynamics with the projection of deforestation for the Amazon Forest, as well as the influence on agribusiness in the South and Southeast regions.