Fatores relevantes para demanda de energia elétrica no sistema elétrico do município de Manaus.

Abstract

Among the energy sources used in Brazil, demand for electricity has quadrupled in four decades. This research covers the isolated electric systems of Amazonas State that have higher production costs than the National System. The research was delimited to “Manaus System” that hosts an industry area which corresponds to 34% of the Amazonas State Electrical Demand. This research, seeks to evaluate the relevant factors for electricity production following official documents, scientific resources and a case study. The data were obtained from official sources such as Eletrobrás, INMET and MTE, scientific papers on the study area and those obtained by statistical analysis ARDL. Such analysis has been widely used since its version published in 2001 by allowing study the relationship between variables. Long-run relationship evidence was found between energy, temperature of the urban area and the number of jobs in the service and the commercial sectors in the city of Manaus. For the industrial sector, the number of jobs did not show evidence of relationships with other variables. A regressive model was calculated using ARDL technique which could estimate the production of electricity with a maximum error of 3.7% compared with the reality