Compensação financeira no cenário de desmatamento líquido zero na Amazônia: uma análise de benefícios e viabilidade econômica

Abstract

In contemporary economics research, the development of economic schemes on conservation of ecosystem services, or the mitigation of climate change is in high demand. The challenge of environmental conservation through the economy has been undeniably difficult worldwide, especially in the Amazon. In the past thirty years, despite the increased demand for sustainability in the Amazon, little progress has been observed to form a forest-based conservationist economy in the region. On the other hand, agriculture in the Amazon presents very low productivity indexes on average, which directly reflect the extent of poverty in this region. By maintaining the status quo, Brazil loses incalculable biodiversity and faces the risk of severe ecosystem imbalance through the loss of conserved forest in exchange for a model that has been distributing more poverty than wealth. The aim of this study is to propose a system of financial compensation to the states of the Legal Amazon to finance the increase of productivity in the agricultural and forestry economy. Calculations were made considering the opportunity cost of agriculture in the Amazon over the net deforestation scenario (DLZ) for the period 2028 to 2050. Additionally, the study estimated the potential generation of carbon credits in the DLZ scenario and its impact on the energy price in Brazil, considering the hypothesis of establishing a tax for the consumption of electricity, as well as the Net Present Value (NPV) of investments. The compensation value in the DLZ scenario between 2028 and 2050, if only the opportunity cost of agriculture is considered, reaches the global amount of 38.6 billion of Reais. In such in case, the tax linked to energy consumption affects the price of energy in average by 0.3% over the period. Carbon credits priced at $ 2.5 could potentially generate R$ 784 billion in the period 2018-2050. This amount, if obtained through taxation on energy consumption, would impact about 7% on the price of energy in Brazil. The net present value (NPV) of the investment is positive from an external resource contribution above 23% of the total amount. It is concluded that the DLZ scenario in the Amazon can be considered rational from the economic-financial perspective as it is estimated an increase in the productivity of agriculture on an yearly rate of 3.43% per year, against 1.8% per year on the deforestation scenario as usual (DcS). It is possible to project that the DLZ, within the boundaries proposed in this work, a reduction of an annual average of 2.6 GtCO2eq has the potential to neutralize 100% of national emissions, raising Brazil to an exclusive level among the nations of the world.