Análise do risco da rentabilidade em pisciculturas de tambaqui nos estados do Amazonas, Rondônia e Roraima, para o mercado consumidor de Manaus-AM.

Abstract

The present study aimed reflecting on economic aspects related to the fishery activity, involving the economic risks in the productive activity of Tambaqui (Colossoma macropomum) (CUVIER, 1816) in typical enterprises, in the Amazonas, Rondonia and Roraima States, referenced in the consumer market of Manaus/AM, a context in which the aforementioned species was favored because it was the one of the greatest interest in commercial cultivation by producers in the northern region of Brazil and especially in the "locus" states of the research. The research evidenced that the fish farms understood here as typical still lack technical and economic information on this activity, in view of the resolution of cost problems, and, consequently, making possible the maximization of profitability, in which situation risk mitigation are extremely important in order to cope with fluctuations in production cost and revenue over time. In this sense, we tried to calculate and simulate scenarios of the profitability of tambaqui production in the system of excavated nurseries, in properties already typified, in said states. The inferences and the results obtained indicate that the states have technical and economic feasibility to be explored. Through the description of the investment and revenue, we can point out that: the typical property of the Amazonas State presents the investment value of R$ 66.594,17 reais/ha and a net income of R$ 0,54/kg, in turn, the typical property of Rondônia presents an investment of R$ 49.080,19 reais/ha and net income of R$ 0,25/kg, finally, the typical property of Roraima, presents the investment of R$ 43.777,18 reais/ha and net income of R$ 0,94/kg. Regarding Economic Risks, the price scenarios analysis for typical property in the Amazonas State found that 76% of the simulated occurrences had a favorable net profit to the development of the activity, as well as the analysis of scenarios referring to the technical variables, it was verified that, presented 36% of the occurrences of net loss to the development of the activity. On the other hand, for the typical property of the Rondônia State, 92% of the simulated occurrences in relation to prices were favorable to the development of the activity, maintaining a positive net profit, and analyzing simulated scenarios as a function of the variables techniques, we found that it presents a 36% chance of net loss. With respect to the simulated scenarios for the typical property of Roraima, due to price and technical variables, it was evidenced that 100% of the simulations present favorable index to the development of the activity. Therefore, the question of economic risk in this type of activity is a highly relevant element to mitigate the effects arising from the technical, environmental, political, economic, social and cultural oscillations that decisively influence economic and financial results in this type of enterprise.