Impactos das mudanças climáticas sobre a distribuição de espécies da várzea amazônica

Abstract

The Amazonian floodplain areas are of important ecological value due to their multiple ecosystem services, among them are water supply, local climate regulation, high biodiversity with a high number of endemic species and high microhabitat diversity. Despite this, the conservation status of most Amazonian floodplains is at high risk due to various threats such as deforestation and climate change, and in particular due to weak national legislation related to wetland conservation. Considering the importance of conserving these environments, techniques for the potential distribution of species can serve as a basis for decision-making to define priority areas for conservation, given the different scenarios of land use change and climate change. Thus, the study aimed to delimit the areas of natural distribution of low- and high-várzea species in the Amazon and to assess the potential impacts of climate change on the future distribution of the species. Projections indicate that climate change represents a major threat to the occurrence of floodplain species. Under the SSP 585 scenario, the four species studied would lose significant areas of climatic suitability by the end of the 21st century, mainly in the Brazilian Amazon, the region with the highest occurrence of the species. Nevertheless, most of the current protected areas will no longer harbor climatically favorable areas for the species. It is concluded that increasing the responsibility of current protected areas towards freshwater ecosystems and implementing new priority areas for the conservation of wetlands (Ramsar Sites) in the Amazon is fundamental to guarantee in situ conservation and protect them from a greater loss of habitat.