Simulação do desmatamento em Apuí - AM a partir de regras de uso do território

Abstract

Located in the southern part of the state of Amazonas, the municipality (county) of Apui is the focus much of the deforestation in this state. Deforestation in Apuí is linked to the advance of cattle, and between 1997 and 2007 the state s highest rates of deforestation were recorded in this region, along with a great increase in the cattle herd. The rapid expansion of human activity in Apuí has led to increasing degradation of forest cover, even in protected areas such as the Permanent Protection Areas (APP). The present study simulated deforestation in Apuí over the period from 2009 to 2039 using the AGROECO model developed in the DINAMICA-EGO software. Additionally, a model was developed using geoprocessing techniques in order to delineate APPs as strips of forest 30, 50, 100, 200 and 500 m in width on either side of the watercourses, taking into account the 1965 Brazilian Forest Code. This model allowed us to quantify losses of APPs at present and with the effect of future deforestation in the municipality. We constructed a reference scenario or business-as-usual (BAU) baseline that projects the historical deforestation. The results show that by 2039 a total of 2727.9 km2 (4.3%) of the area of original forest cover would be lost. Of the total area of APPs in the municipality, 173.0 km2 (4.7%) would be lost by the end of the simulation. If one considers only the area of the municipality of Apuí outside of the buffers (APPs), there was a loss of 2586.4 km2 (5%) of the original forest cover in the municipality and a loss of 154.4 km2 (5.2%) of the total area of the APPs. Observing only the PA do Juma, the area cleared by the end of the simulation was 1852.8 km2 (32%), while in relation to the original area of the APPs in the PA (304.8 km2), the area lost was 103.4 km2 (33.9%) by the end of the simulation. For the Jatuarana National Forest (FLONA), deforestation was 27.2 km2 (0.4%) at the end of the simulation, which is small compared to the total area of original forest lost in the municipality (5773.7 km2). From the results we note that deforestation is concentrated in the PA do Juma. The simulation using the AGROECO model was important in assessing the loss of APPs over the next 30 years showing that most areas of the APP that would be degraded would be those that are 30 and 50 m in width and are near previously cleared areas. However when one considers the total area of APP in the municipality, this appears to be in good condition, which could be related to the presence of a mosaic of protected areas that occupies more than half of the municipality. But in the Jatuarana FLONA deforestation occurs near the AM-174 Highway, which enters the FLONA by way of the PA do Juma. No deforestation was seen in the remainder of the conservation units. In relation to violations of the Forest Code, we found that the areas that contributed most to this are the PA do Juma and its surroundings that are close to the previous deforestation. The AGROECO model and the model proposed for the APPs and can be used as tools used to understand the dynamics of land-use change. The results should be considered as simplifications of complex systems that involve social and economic factors, but the models can indicate probable outcomes regarding future events. Despite these limitations, the results may help in decision-making and in creating mitigation measures in an attempt to halt deforestation and consequently the loss of important areas such as the APPs that help to sustain the environment.