Multifractalidade das chuvas na Amazônia e anomalias de temperatura na superfície do mar

Abstract

In this work we analyzed, on the multifractal perspective, the rainfall records from sixteen meteorological stations located in Brazil, especially in the Amazônia, in the towns of Altamira, Araguatins, Cáceres, Corumba, Cruzeiro do Sul, Guaíra, Ibotirama, Manaus, Oriximiná, Piranhas, Porto Velho, Santa Terezinha de Goiás, Santarém, São Paulo de Olivença, Tucuruí and Xambioá. As well the the records of the sea surface temperature anomalies-SSTA for seven regions located in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, named North Atlantic, South Atlantic and Tropical Atlantic, in the Atlantic ocean, and Nino 1 + 2, Nino 3, Nino 4 and Nino 3:4, in the Pacific ocean. Using the MF-DFA methodology with the addition of the step zero, we calculated the multifractal spectra of the time series related to the rainfall and SSTA records. Also we obtained the correlation between the rainfall and the SSTA data, finding a weak correlation between these series. Based on the Multiplicative Multinomial d-Process, we simulated the zeros in the rainfall series, using the parameters obtained through the polynomial adjustments on the multifractal spectra. Keywords: Time series; rainfall; Multifractality; Hurst exponent