Análise socioambiental da morbidade da malária em Manaus-AM

Abstract

This research aimed to understand the social and environmental dynamics of malaria morbidity in Manaus. For this, the theoretical basis was used S.A.U. and their respective subsystems: the natural, the built and the social in an attempt to analyze malaria in an integrated way. The data analyzed were: rainfall, air temperature, relative humidity, cloudiness, wind speed and satellite images with the identification of atmospheric systems in the year of 2015. Year chosen for the application of rhythmic analysis, the year in which Manaus recorded the highest number of autochthonous cases. These data were obtained from INMET and CPTEC. We also used data referring to the maximum, minimum and average level of the Negro River, obtained on the website of the Port of Manaus. Malaria data were obtained by SIVEP-MALARIA. Variables from the 2010 IBGE Census were used, such as environmental sanitation, income, schooling and population. Static techniques such as the Quantil technique were applied to identify standard years with malaria cases. Multiple Regression was applied to analyze climatic and hydrological variability with malaria cases. The Median Technique was applied in the construction of socio-environmental indicators and characterize low, medium-low, medium-high or high vulnerability neighborhoods. The results of the Quantiles identified that the years in which the major epidemics occurred were standard dry years followed by standard years of normal rains that could favorably condition the malaria vector. On the temperature, this one also presented tendency to standard years hotter than usual. The variability of the rainfall dynamics showed that malaria occurs predominantly in July and August, months with lower total rainfall, high temperatures and high humidity, low cloudiness with strong performance in days / months with higher peaks of the disease, as it favored the maturation of vector anopheles. During the March and April months, rainfall, predominance of ITCZ, SACU and lines of instabilities occurred in low cases of the disease. The months that had the highest peaks of the disease were May and August, months in which predominantly the ZCIT and MEC systems, respectively. The rainfall and the river level showed a strong correlation and, therefore, a greater explanatory power in the increase of malaria cases. The ENOS variable did not present a strong correlation or explanatory power. However, it should be remembered that the ENSO directly influences the hydrological dynamics, the rainfall regime and temperature variation, variables that presented significant significance in the explanation of the disease cases, thus, it can be said that the ENSO is indirectly influencing the cases of malaria. On the socio-environmental determinants of malaria, identified after the construction of the indicators, showed a strong spatial relationship with the precariousness of environmental sanitation. Because the districts with the highest incidence of diseases, such as Lago Azul, Puraquequara and Tarumã-Açu, also present problems with the sanitation services, enhancing he formation of environments favorable to the vector. About the methodology, S.A.U. was shown as a theoretical and methodological contribution capable of supporting researches that aim to study socio-environmental problems that relate the natural, constructed and social system of a metropolitan city such as Manaus.