Modelo baseado na cadeia de Markov para estimar o comportamento futuro dos fatores potencializadores da evasão escolar

Abstract

The college drop-out in Brazilian private universities constitutes problem both for students and for the institution; in the other side, representing the end of aspiration on the future income stream; and on the other, the waste of resources and opportunity costs of unfilled vacancies. Thus, this work presents the study of the pedagogical factors that influence evasion with students first period in engineering courses in a Higher Education Private Institution during 2013, under the approach of the Markov chain. The approach of this study is quantitative with descriptive method, where the data were collected through desk research and interview technique among students. The population is all students of a private institution engineering courses and the sample refers to 64 students dropping out in the year 2013. According to the preliminary results identified that the highest dropout rate happens in the first half course. The biggest cause of this dropout is influenced by financial problems followed by pedagogical reasons. The course which shows greater evasion is the course of Environmental Engineering. Therefore, so far, this study indicates a significant roadmap, when the courses in this study showed us an average dropout at 49% when the national average shows 22%, these data that refer to higher education. The results of this field study allowed that the proposed model showed results with data validated in a period of time, resulting information for decision making.